There is a growing feeling that the 2010 General Election in the UK could result in a hung parliament. If this were to happen, Britain will enter a phase of coalition government, something that is rather alien to Britain's adversarial political culture.
What is a Hung Parliament?
A hung parliament is the result of no one party in the British House of Commons managing to attain an overall majority. An overall majority is when that party has more seats than the other parties put together. Although one party rarely, if ever, gets more votes than the other parties put together, Britain's First Past the Post, majoritarian voting system means that, ordinarily, one party does get a majority of seats.
When there is a hung parliament, or even when there is a majority of only one or two, there is a necessity for the government to form a coalition in order to be able to pass legislation and run an effective government. In these circumstances, small parties can become 'King-makers'.
Which Way Would They Jump?
Nick Clegg, leader of the third party, the Liberal Democrats, has been quite explicit. He will not decide the next government, the British people will. As such, it is clear that Clegg will attempt to form a coalition with whichever party gets the most seats. However, it is undoubtedly the case that Clegg would find a coalition with Labour easier and more sustainable than a coalition with the Conservative Party, for the following reasons:
The Problems of a Conservative-Liberal Coalition
The Conservative Party has an elephant in the room that they have been studiously ignoring throughout this election campaign: just as in 1997 they are still split down the middle on Europe. Cameron and most of his supporters are firmly 'Eurosceptic' and the 'Europhile' minority have been largely sidelined in recent years, other than the popular Shadow Business Secretary, Ken Clarke (tipped by many to be the Chancellor in a Conservative government).
The Liberal Democrat Party is the most 'Europhile' of the main parties. Any good opposition, faced with a Conservative-Liberal coalition, will try to force votes on Europe. Such a coalition is unlikely to survive more than a few weeks of such votes.
Beyond the Europe question, the Conservatives and Liberals are also at loggerheads over tax, electoral and constitutional reform, public spending, economic recovery... All of this suggests that a Conservative-Liberal coalition would be very difficult to sustain.
The Conservatives' best hope in the event of a hung parliament is that they are close enough to that overall majority that they can depend on Ulster Unionist votes and the occasional independent or UKIP member. This is possible, but seems to be becoming less likely all the time.
The Problems of a Labour-Liberal Coalition
The policy programmes of Labour and the Liberal Democrats are much closer and, as such, a coalition may well be more sustainable. However, Nick Clegg has stated that Labour does not deserve a fourth term in power. This is a strong and significant statement. There are also likely to be divisions of personality.
A Second Election
One constitutional reform suggested by Labour is the adoption of fixed-term parliaments. In the current situation, a Prime Minister can call a General Election whenever s/he likes within the five-year term. If a government is failing to pass legislation and is vulnerable to a vote of no confidence, a Prime Minister may well choose - or may be forced - to call an election later in 2010.
The last year to see two General Elections in the UK was 1974. Then, as now, there was economic crisis and industrial unrest. If Cameron leads the biggest party in the Commons but is unable to sustain a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, the purpose of his calling a second election would be to try and consolidate his position and gain a majority. But this is entirely unpredictable, and Cameron could have one of the shortest periods in office of any UK Prime Minister in history. That is, if he is to become Prime Minister at all.
Duncan Hall - Duncan Hall is a semi-professional acoustic musician and lecturer in Government & Politics
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